Stability Analysis and Optimal Control of Nipah Virus Transmission Model with Environmental Spillover Dynamics
Renu *
Department of Mathematics, B. N. MANDAL University (R.J.M. College, Saharsa ), Madhepura, Bihar, 852113, India.
Puja Kumari
Department of Mathematics , B. N. MANDAL University, Madhepura, Bihar, 852113, India.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The Nipah virus is a highly pathogenic zoonotic virus that delivers a considerable risk to the general populace owing to its elevated mortality rate and capacity for epidemic outbreaks. The virus is frequently transferred from fruit bats, the natural reservoir hosts, to humans via pathogenic food supplies, intermediate hosts such as animals or direct interaction between people. Comprehending the transmission patterns of the Nipah virus is crucial for formulating efficient mitigation and management strategies. The propagation of the Nipah virus is explored in this work using a mathematical model that takes into account both environmental spillover infection from contaminating bat sources and transmission between humans. The degree of contamination can be expressed by a separate environmental variable and the human population is separated into susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined and recovered compartments. In order to establish the positivity and boundedness of solutions as well as to identify equilibrium points, the model is examined. The fundamental reproduction number is obtained as a threshold parameter that inhibits the spread of disease. To determine the situations in which the infection either dies out or continues to exist in the population, stability analysis of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is carried out. Additionally, the best control methods are presented, including treatment or isolation of affected people, prevention and minimizing human interaction. The findings show that a combination of intervention techniques can considerably slow the Nipah virus’s spread and aid in containing future outbreaks.
Keywords: Nipah virus, mathematical model, environmental spillover, stability analysis, basic reproduction number, optimal control, numerical simulation