Forecasting Maternal Mortality with Modified Gompertz Model

Main Article Content

Samuel Essamuah Assabil


The Gompertz model is one of the earliest most influential mortality models. The model dominated for more than 100 years and is still one of the most important models in the field of mortality. Even though the model was designed exclusively for human mortality, it has found its application in many fields. However, the model has not solely been applied to maternal mortality. The work, therefore, fit a modified form of Gompertz model to Ghana’ maternal mortality data (2016-2018) and the fit looks quite good. We also forecast with the model and the result shows that Ghana is far from achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) objective of reducing maternal mortality by 68 percent in the next 11 years. That is, the work shows that there will be an annual reduction of 2.9 percent in maternal mortality rate for the next 11 years. This reduction, however, is not enough to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) objective of a 6 percent annual reduction. To make the SDG objective a reality, Ghana needs a further reduction of 3.1 percent annually in its maternal mortality rate. This calls for intensifying programmes that improve maternal health and reduces maternal mortality.

Forecasting, Gompertz Model, Maternal Mortality, Sustainable Development Goal.

Article Details

How to Cite
Assabil, S. (2019). Forecasting Maternal Mortality with Modified Gompertz Model. Journal of Advances in Mathematics and Computer Science, 32(5), 1-7.
Original Research Article


Hedau V, Soni P. Increment of Mobile Subscriber in India : Gompertz Curve; 2016. Issue1/01-04.pdf

Rzadkowski G, Glazewskaet I, Sawinska K. The gompertz function and its applications in management. DE GRUYTER. Foundations of Management. Vol. 2015;7. ISSN 2080-7279.
DOI: 10.1515/fman-2015-0035

Rossi S, Deslaurier A, Morin HH. Application of the Gompertz equation for the study of xylem cell development. Dendrochronologia. 2003;54:49-55.

Bi-Huei T. Applications of Gompertz model in foreign direct investment of Taiwan’s IC design industry into China. 2015 IEEE International Conference on Information and Automation; 2015.

United Nations. The Millennium Development Goals Report 2007, New York; 2007.

World Health Organization. Annual Report of World Health Organization; 2005. Available:

De-Moivre A. A treatise of annuities on lives. London; 1725.

Gompertz B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 1825;115:513-585.

Assabil S, Mcleish. Mortality modeling using covariates with Ghana census data. In review; 2018.